Tasman must beat odds against Otago [Nelson Mail preview]

In terms of timing, adversity's hit the Tasman Makos at exactly the wrong time and on several fronts.

Tasman's hefty 42-10 final round-robin loss to North Harbour last Saturday to forfeit a home semifinal was one thing.

But losing four key players on the eve of the union's biggest game of the season has left Tasman in a desperate state as they contemplete tomorrow's ITM Cup championship rugby semifinal showdown with Otago at Dunedin's Forsyth Barr Stadium.

Canterbury's unexpected recall of Tasman's loan player, No 8 Jordan Taufua, sent shock waves through the camp this week, while injuries to free-spirited wing Robbie Malneek, attacking fullback Tom Marshall and to experienced tighthead prop Campbell Johnstone have delivered further body blows to Tasman's buildup. A recurrence of Marshall's earlier shoulder injury has seen him replaced by Albert Nikoro in the starting lineup.

Add Tasman's previous 39-13 loss to Otago, also in Dunedin, in round nine of this year's championship series to the mix, and the odds seem stacked against Tasman progressing any further than tomorrow night's already difficult assignment.

But Tasman have delivered in the face of adversity before, and coach Kieran Keane's backing them to do so again. He's acknowledged the severity of the challenge facing his team, but certainly isn't prepared to concede anything to Otago, a team Tasman still haven't beaten in six previous outings.

"It's going to be a scrap and I think we're going to be up for it," Keane said.

However, he admitted that the loss of Taufua had been particularly difficult to accept. "It's disappointing for us and it's disappointing for him. He was pretty keen to stay, but the rules are the rules and we have to abide by them."

With Taufua now gone, Keane's switched Tevita Koloamatangi to No 8 and Joe Wheeler from lock to blindside flanker in a bid to beef up the pack. Riki Hoeata locks the scrum alongside the vastly experienced Filipo Levi, with influential flanker Shane Christie also returning after being rested against Harbour.

Keane said that Malneek's replacement, James Lowe, also needed to reveal his ample potential.

"He's going to have to because Robbie's been one of our best, to be honest. I think Robbie's had one of his best seasons and it's up to the young fella to step up. That's all we're asking."

Tasman's scrum has remained reliable and effective in Johnstone's absence, with Tim Perry, Quentin MacDonald and Sam Prattley providing a solid foundation.

Keane said that tiredness was a likely factor in Tasman's inability to respond to North Harbour's nothing-to-lose approach last Saturday.

"The feeling I have with the boys is they dropped the ball and it's unfortunate, but we can't keep looking back."

Keane was hopeful that five days' rest and some careful player management would have his team ready to deliver against an Otago side that matched Tasman's record of five wins and five losses.

He certainly doesn't mind entering the game as underdogs, with the pressure on Otago to return to winning form on their home turf after consecutive losses to premiership heavyweights Wellington and Auckland.

And there's a touch of irony to the two respective team selections.

As Tasman lament Taufua's absence, Otago welcome the return of All Blacks flanker Adam Thomson who will start in the No 6 jersey.

AT A GLANCE

Tasman Makos: Albert Nikoro, Peter Betham, Kieron Fonotia, Andrew Goodman (captain), James Lowe, Hayden Cripps, Jeremy Su'a, Tevita Koloamatangi, Shane Christie, Joe Wheeler, Riki Hoeata, Filipo Levi, Sam Prattley, Quentin MacDonald, Tim Perry. Reserves: Francis Smith, Reuben Northover, Vernon Fredericks, Gary Redmond, Steve Alfeld, Mitchell Scott, Sione Holani.

Otago Razorbacks: Tony Ensor, Marshall Suckling, Jayden Spence, Glenn Dickson (captain), Buxton Popoali'i, Hayden Parker, Fumiaki Tanaka, Gareth Evans, Lee Allan, Adam Thomson, Rob Verbakel, Jackson Hemopo, Liam Coltman, Sam Anderson-Heather, Aki Seiuli. Reserves: Shota Horie, Jacob Ellison, Adam Hill, TJ Ioane, Peter Breen, Michael Collins, Hugh Blake.

What: ITM Cup championship semifinal Where: Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin When: Tomorrow, 7.35pm Referee: Glen Jackson (Bay of Plenty)

Head-to-head: Played 6, Otago 5, Tasman 0, Drawn 1

Last time: September 23, 2012 (Dunedin) Otago 39 Tasman 13

TAB head-to-head odds: Otago $1.45, Tasman $2.60